DESCRIPTION (adapted from the application): The goal of the proposed ISA is to initiate a long-term research program to study trends in the health of older Americans. Health problems begin as diseases, abnormal biologic processes that may result in functional impairments or death. This ISA will emphasize the application of new methods to a unique set of detailed longitudinal databases, to provide a broad range of new insights into trends in disease burden, the determinants of these trends, and the consequences of the trends for the well-being of older Americans. To support this long-term research agenda, the ISA includes a substantial individualized training program in advanced methods in demography and relevant related research in medical demography and epidemiology. These methods will be integrated with the investigator s existing expertise in econometrics and biomedical science in the development of the proposed research program. The specific aims of this ISA are to: (1) describe trends in mortality, disease incidence, and disease prevalence and progression among older Americans, with particular emphasis on interactions among diseases and population health. Analyses should provide new insights into recent trends in disease studies and may improve forecasts of disease burden, mortality, and health care costs; (2) analyze determinants of trends in disease status, with particular emphasis on the contribution of technological change in health care and policy factors that may influence technological change; (3) develop new insights into the consequences of change in disease status and mortality for the well-being of older Americans, and for the costs of government programs; and (4) expand existing research programs at the NBER and Stanford University (SU) in the economics of health care and aging, to better incorporate demographic and epidemiologic perspectives in ongoing research.